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FROM NORTHERN EUROPE (AND SOUTH AMERICA) TO LUGANO: WHY SUBSTANTIAL WEALTH IS CHOOSING THE CERESIO

15/07/2026

There is a quiet but unmistakable movement that anyone working daily in Ticino's prime property market has been observing for months: families and entrepreneurs from Northern Europe — Scandinavia, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom — and, increasingly, from South America, are relocating to Lugano and to the municipalities of the surrounding hills and lakefront.

This is not a perception. In the course of 2026, MDA Group has already closed transactions in the CHF 5 to 25 million range with international buyers relocating their residence, largely in connection with the regime of expenditure-based taxation — the so-called lump-sum taxation (forfait fiscal). In this article we explain who is arriving, why Lugano specifically, exactly how the lump-sum regime works, and what these buyers are purchasing.

Who is arriving in Lugano — and why now

The typical profile is that of families with consolidated wealth: entrepreneurs who have sold their businesses, executives stepping away from large groups, Northern European families seeking fiscal stability and quality of life, and — more and more often — South American families, Brazilian and Argentine above all, drawn by Swiss legal and asset security.

From Northern Europe: the search for predictability

Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Germany and the United Kingdom have all, for different reasons, tightened or made less predictable the tax treatment of substantial wealth: wealth taxes, exit taxes, reforms of non-dom regimes. The result is a steady flow of families looking for a stable legal order, where the rules do not change with every legislature. Switzerland — and Ticino in particular — offers exactly that, with the added benefits of a Mediterranean climate, the Italian language and Milan one hour away by train.

From South America: asset security and a bridge to Europe

For South American families, the main driver is the protection of wealth in a jurisdiction with the Swiss franc, a first-class banking system and absolute political stability, combined with privileged access to Europe. Lugano, with its Latin culture and human scale, often feels more familiar than Zurich or Geneva — and remains distinctly more competitive in property values for the same level of prestige.

Lump-sum taxation properly explained: what expenditure-based taxation is

The correct term is "taxation according to expenditure" (global taxation), governed at the federal level by Art. 14 of the Federal Direct Tax Act (LIFD/DBG) and, in Ticino, by the cantonal tax law. It is an optional regime that allows taxes to be calculated not on actual worldwide income and wealth, but on the taxpayer's and their family's standard of living — their "expenditure".

Who qualifies

Foreign nationals (the regime is not available to Swiss citizens);
who take up tax residence in Switzerland for the first time, or who return after at least ten years abroad;
and who do not carry out gainful activity in Switzerland. Managing investments and business activities abroad remains possible.

How it is calculated, in practice

The taxable base is the family's annual worldwide expenditure (housing, staff, travel, boats, overall standard of living). The law, however, sets minimum thresholds, and the highest of the following always applies:

the taxpayer's actual annual expenditure, including dependants;
seven times the annual rent or the rental value of the home in Switzerland;
the statutory minimum base: at federal level approximately CHF 435,000 of taxable income (an indexed amount), while Ticino applies a cantonal minimum base of CHF 400,000;
the control calculation: the tax may in no case be lower than the ordinary tax due on Swiss-source income (Swiss real estate, Swiss securities, etc.) and on income for which double-taxation treaty relief is claimed.

Ordinary federal, cantonal and municipal rates are then applied to this taxable base. In practice: total predictability, an annual tax that can be agreed in advance with the tax authority through a ruling, and no obligation to declare worldwide assets analytically. For a family with substantial wealth, the effective tax burden becomes a fraction of what it would pay in Scandinavia, Germany or the United Kingdom.

A decisive detail: the home matters

Since one of the calculation parameters is the rental value of the home, the choice of property is an integral part of the tax strategy. Buying the right residence is not only a life choice: it directly affects the structure of the lump sum. This is why these clients rely on an advisor who speaks both the language of real estate and that of their tax and legal counsel. A practical note: anyone who obtains Swiss residence may purchase their primary home free of Lex Koller restrictions, even as a non-EU citizen.

What they are buying: the CHF 5–25 million range

The transactions MDA Group has already closed in 2026 for this clientele are concentrated in a precise range — CHF 5 to 25 million — and in three recurring categories:

Lakefront and first-hill villas — Collina d'Oro, Castagnola, Aldesago, Morcote, Carona: absolute privacy, open views over the Ceresio, generous volumes and scope for signature renovation;
City penthouses — central Lugano and Paradiso: the choice of those who want services, restaurants and the station on foot, with panoramic terraces and hotel-grade finishes;
Pieds-dans-l'eau properties — the rarest and most sought-after category on the lake: direct water access, private jetty, and values that have commanded significant premiums over the wider market in recent years.

One element unites all these deals: they largely take place off-market. The most significant properties on the Ceresio do not appear on portals; they move through direct relationships between owners, advisors and the few agencies with genuine access to this segment. This is where a firm rooted in the territory since 2015, with more than 300 closed transactions, makes the difference.

Why Lugano wins the comparison

Competitive and stable taxation, with the lump-sum regime for new residents and municipal multipliers among the lowest in Switzerland in municipalities such as Paradiso and Collina d'Oro;
Location: Milan and its intercontinental airports one hour away, Zurich two, all within an Italian-speaking cultural context;
Security and discretion: a banking, fiduciary and legal ecosystem built over generations around international wealth management;
Quality of life: lake, mountains, international schools (TASIS above all), excellent healthcare and a climate Northern Europe can only envy;
A prime market that remains rational: like-for-like, Ceresio values remain distinctly below trophy-tier Lake Como, Geneva or Zurich — with concrete upside potential.